Terms of Honourable Exit from the Russia-Ukraine War

On 21 July 2026 the Initiative transmitted its first briefing, in identical form, to five capitals: Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, London and Berlin.

The briefing's central finding is that the character of the war has changed. Territorial movement no longer bears any proportion to its human cost, the weight of operations has shifted onto civilian and economic infrastructure on both sides, and a self-sustaining cycle of retaliation has replaced military target selection. Measured against pre-war positions, no belligerent is winning; the largest net gains of the past four years have accrued to powers not fighting at all.

The briefing sets out a six-part framework for settlement: an unconditional ceasefire preceding all political questions; a freeze of the line of actual control without legal recognition by either side; binding multinational security guarantees for Ukraine in place of alliance membership, with no external ceiling on Ukraine's own forces; a twenty-five year reciprocal moratorium on alliance enlargement; immediate separation of humanitarian files (prisoners, displaced children, remains) from political bargaining; and graduated, reversible sanctions relief with an automatic reinstatement mechanism.

It further assesses the risk of escalation beyond the Black Sea basin as real and rising, and closes by identifying the fields, from the Arctic to arms control, in which the parties' interests are larger together than opposed.

The full text is available to researchers, journalists and institutions: write to [email protected] with your name and affiliation.